{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061607",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-17-kalshi-ladder-53-2026-06-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin near $64K-$66K on June 17 splits the ladder",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $64K on June 17: Kalshi ladder 53%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DF6R2T0FW1",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-above-on-june-17-2026",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin spot price on June 17",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd08497432c1651c6bf606fbc1e66a6b76b1d93ff97c11b19c23f703f2e036cb9",
    "question_raw": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 370.186984,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "binance.com",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-17T16:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies Bitcoin is priced at $64K-$66K on June 17: 53% above $64K but only 25% above $66K, consistent with spot near $64,835.",
    "Analyst 'meaningful floor' framing for the $60K-$70K range is consistent with the ladder showing 90% above $60K but sharp drop-off above $66K.",
    "The end-of-June trimmed mean ladder shows only 8% above $75K, indicating markets see limited upside extension from current levels near term.",
    "Resolves intraday June 17 via the Kalshi price feed; current spot near $64,835 puts the $64K-$66K range squarely in focus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Phil Roberts",
          "source_url": "https://chaingridnews.com/2026/06/16/kraken-brings-perpetual-futures-onshore-with-cftc-regulated-u-s-launch/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Kraken launched CFTC-regulated perpetual futures in the US as Bitcoin traded around $64,835 with analysts calling for meaningful floors in the $60K-$70K range.",
      "publisher": "Phil Roberts",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://chaingridnews.com/2026/06/16/kraken-brings-perpetual-futures-onshore-with-cftc-regulated-u-s-launch/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's June 17 intraday ladder and the end-of-June trimmed mean ladder together show the market pricing Bitcoin in a tight $62K-$66K near-term band."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Phil Roberts: Kraken Brings Perpetual Futures Onshore With CFTC-Regulated U.S. Launc",
      "url": "https://chaingridnews.com/2026/06/16/kraken-brings-perpetual-futures-onshore-with-cftc-regulated-u-s-launch/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-17-kalshi-ladder-53-2026-06-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-17-kalshi-ladder-53-2026-06-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}