{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060407",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-6-kalshi-51-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T01:30:53.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $64K on June 6 wavers at coin-flip territory",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $64K on June 6: Kalshi 51%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JCHVD3PD84",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-above-on-june-6-2026",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on June 6, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf3cffa523f32396cc47e21a1d31d3f54f199d6fc0a2536d2fdd6953126dd1447",
    "question_raw": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?",
    "current_price": 0.311,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13358.764983000003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "binance.com",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-06T16:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's June 6 Bitcoin ladder implies a 51% chance BTC closes above $64,000, with only 31% above $66,000.",
    "The spot selloff to below $63,000 is consistent with the Kalshi distribution, which assigns near-even odds to a $64,000 recovery by Saturday.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder for June 7 (CM-EVT-KDMRKTYKR2) shows 78% above $64,000 and 48% above $66,000, suggesting the market expects some stabilization over the weekend.",
    "Resolves via the named resolution source; the settlement price is the official Bitcoin rate on June 6, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/04/bitcoin-selloff-continues-as-prices-slide-below-usd63-000-for-the-first-time-since-february",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin's price slid below $63,000 for the first time since February, driven by a selloff that also saw heavy liquidations across crypto longs.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T01:30:53.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/04/bitcoin-selloff-continues-as-prices-slide-below-usd63-000-for-the-first-time-since-february"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's near-even $64K odds on June 6 reflect the spot selloff, with the June 7 ladder at 78% above $64K implying traders expect a modest recovery into the weekend."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: Bitcoin selloff continues as prices slide below $63,000 for the first",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/04/bitcoin-selloff-continues-as-prices-slide-below-usd63-000-for-the-first-time-since-february",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T01:30:53.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-6-kalshi-51-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-6-kalshi-51-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}