{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060407",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-6-polymarket-77-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T07:42:47.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $68K on June 6 priced a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 31%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $64k on June 6: Polymarket 77%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JCHVD3PD84",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-above-on-june-6-2026",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on June 6, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xf3cffa523f32396cc47e21a1d31d3f54f199d6fc0a2536d2fdd6953126dd1447",
    "question_raw": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?",
    "current_price": 0.311,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13358.764983000003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "binance.com",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-06T16:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 77% on Bitcoin closing above $64,000 on June 6, per the LADDER distribution.",
    "The ETF outflow news and sub-$62k intraday lows reported June 3-4 are in tension with a 77% probability of recovery to above $64k within days.",
    "A companion LADDER for June 7 shows an almost identical 78% above $64k, suggesting the market sees the dip as likely transient.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle using Bitcoin price data on the specified date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "financefeeds.com",
          "source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/crypto-etf-outflows-extend-as-bitcoin-and-ether-funds-lose-449-6-million-on-june-3/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Crypto ETFs posted $449.6 million in combined Bitcoin and Ether net outflows on June 3 as the Bitcoin selloff extended below $62,000.",
      "publisher": "financefeeds.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T07:42:47.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/crypto-etf-outflows-extend-as-bitcoin-and-ether-funds-lose-449-6-million-on-june-3/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket LADDER resolves via uma_oracle; both June 6 and June 7 contracts price near-identical recovery odds above $64k."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "financefeeds.com: Crypto ETF Outflows Extend as Bitcoin and Ether Funds Lose $449.6 Mill",
      "url": "https://financefeeds.com/crypto-etf-outflows-extend-as-bitcoin-and-ether-funds-lose-449-6-million-on-june-3/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T07:42:47.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-6-polymarket-77-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-64k-on-june-6-polymarket-77-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}