{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060308",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-above-75k-by-june-30-kalshi-25-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T06:23:19.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $75K by June 30 priced as deep tail",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin above $75K by June 30: Kalshi 25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin trimmed mean price by June 30, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-7500000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4334.16,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's June 30 ladder prices only a 25% chance Bitcoin's trimmed mean exceeds $75,000, with just 8% above $80,000.",
    "The distribution is consistent with the reported bearish positioning: the market assigns 75% odds to BTC remaining below $75,000 by month-end.",
    "The June 5 spot ladder (CM-EVT-9VZL96QM32) implies a current price in the $67,000-$67,500 range, showing an implied gap of roughly $8,000 to the $75K strike.",
    "Resolves via Kalshi settlement using a trimmed mean Bitcoin price methodology; the trimming methodology reduces manipulation risk at settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/03/kalshi-traders-bet-bitcoin-s-selloff-has-further-to-run",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Prediction market traders were reported betting on further Bitcoin downside, with markets implying elevated probability of sub-$55,000 prices before year-end.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T06:23:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/03/kalshi-traders-bet-bitcoin-s-selloff-has-further-to-run"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 25% on $75K by June 30 aligns with the bearish narrative in prediction markets, with the $80K strike at just 8% confirming a decisive downside skew."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: Prediction market traders bet bitcoin's selloff has further to run",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/03/kalshi-traders-bet-bitcoin-s-selloff-has-further-to-run",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T06:23:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T12:03:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-75k-by-june-30-kalshi-25-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-75k-by-june-30-kalshi-25-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}