{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070907",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-crosses-100k-again-kalshi-15-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T18:35:52.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above 100K consensus fractures under geopolitical weight",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 15%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin crosses $100K again: Kalshi 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmax100-26",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 366.98,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices 15% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again, resolving via CF Benchmarks.",
    "Bitcoin stabilizing near $63,000 after a ceasefire collapse-driven drop to under $61,500 shows resilience, but the $100K threshold remains nearly 60% above current spot, explaining the low probability.",
    "A companion Polymarket ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) prices only 13% on Bitcoin above $99,999 by December 31, 2026, confirming cross-venue alignment on the $100K level as a tail outcome.",
    "Resolution via CF Benchmarks requires a confirmed close above the threshold; escalating US-Iran military activity and risk-off pressure from equities are the primary near-term headwinds the market is pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Terence Zimwara",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-bulls-reclaim-63000-after-3-slide-as-traders-bet-the-sell-off-has-ended/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin rebounded to near $63,000 after a 3% slide triggered by Trump declaring the US-Iran ceasefire over, with the recovery coming despite ongoing military exchanges.",
      "publisher": "Terence Zimwara",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T18:35:52.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-bulls-reclaim-63000-after-3-slide-as-traders-bet-the-sell-off-has-ended/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via CF Benchmarks; the 15% price and cross-venue Polymarket alignment at 13% frame $100K as a consensus tail risk, not a base case."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Terence Zimwara: Bitcoin Bulls Reclaim $63,000 After 3% Slide as Traders Bet the Sell-O",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-bulls-reclaim-63000-after-3-slide-as-traders-bet-the-sell-off-has-ended/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T18:35:52.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-crosses-100k-again-kalshi-15-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-crosses-100k-again-kalshi-15-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}