{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072108",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-crosses-100k-again-kalshi-19-2026-07-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-21T00:14:46.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K again holds at deep discount in Kalshi pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 19%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin crosses $100K again: Kalshi 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmax100-26",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX100-26-DEC",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1953.08,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 19% probability that Bitcoin crosses $100,000 again, with the Kalshi ladder showing only 14% above $100K by December 31.",
    "Whale accumulation and ETF inflow recovery are bullish signals, but the market prices Bitcoin reclaiming $100K as a low-probability outcome from current levels near $65K.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Bitcoin minimum price above a floor by January 1, 2027 sits at 28%, providing a lower-bound read that reinforces the modest recovery consensus.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks; the $65K current spot price implies a roughly 54% gain required to hit $100K, making the 19% pricing appear calibrated rather than dismissive."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jinju Hong",
          "source_url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/83411/bitcoin-whales-post-biggest-accumulation-in-five-months-buy-66700-btc-as-mid-tier-holders-sell",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin whales posted their largest five-month accumulation of 66,700 BTC while mid-tier holders sold, with ETF inflows surging to $273 million after a two-month rout.",
      "publisher": "Jinju Hong",
      "published_at": "2026-07-21T00:14:46.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/83411/bitcoin-whales-post-biggest-accumulation-in-five-months-buy-66700-btc-as-mid-tier-holders-sell"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 19% on Bitcoin recrossing $100K; the whale accumulation news is constructive but the market prices significant distance between current spot and the $100K threshold."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jinju Hong: Bitcoin whales post biggest accumulation in five months, buying 66,700",
      "url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/83411/bitcoin-whales-post-biggest-accumulation-in-five-months-buy-66700-btc-as-mid-tier-holders-sell",
      "published_at": "2026-07-21T00:14:46.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-21T10:22:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-crosses-100k-again-kalshi-19-2026-07-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-crosses-100k-again-kalshi-19-2026-07-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}