{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062607",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-min-price-above-60k-by-jan-2027-kalshi-34-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin minimum price above $60K by January 2027 holds below even odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin min price above $60K by Jan 2027: Kalshi 34%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7854.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 34% on Bitcoin's minimum price staying above its January 1, 2027 strike, resolving via CF Benchmarks.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $60,000 while the market prices only 34% on holding above that level reflects the market's view that further downside tests are more likely than not.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 by end of 2026 sits at 16%, suggesting cross-market skepticism about a BTC recovery.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks minimum price calculation; the contract tracks the floor, so any brief dip below the strike level would resolve it negatively."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingview.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/99Bitcoins:bd9cda60b094b:0-crypto-news-today-june-26-btc-barely-holding-60k-uniswap-and-spark-launch-fx-layer-dubai-to-launch-token-backed-by-nasdaq-etf/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin was barely holding $60,000 on June 26 following a week of pressure from PCE inflation data, ETF outflows, and a $1.48 billion liquidation wave.",
      "publisher": "tradingview.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/99Bitcoins:bd9cda60b094b:0-crypto-news-today-june-26-btc-barely-holding-60k-uniswap-and-spark-launch-fx-layer-dubai-to-launch-token-backed-by-nasdaq-etf/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on Bitcoin minimum price by January 2027 via CF Benchmarks; at 34%, the market is pricing meaningful downside risk consistent with BTC's current struggle near $60K."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingview.com: Crypto News Today (June 26): BTC Barely Holding $60K, Uniswap and Spar",
      "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/99Bitcoins:bd9cda60b094b:0-crypto-news-today-june-26-btc-barely-holding-60k-uniswap-and-spark-launch-fx-layer-dubai-to-launch-token-backed-by-nasdaq-etf/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-min-price-above-60k-by-jan-2027-kalshi-34-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-min-price-above-60k-by-jan-2027-kalshi-34-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}