{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101708",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-min-price-by-jan-2027-kalshi-5-volume-surges-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin minimum price by January 2027 stays a long shot at $80K floor",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin min price by Jan 2027: Kalshi 5%, volume surges",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.3,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 5% probability on the Bitcoin minimum price contract resolving above a specified floor by January 1, 2027; trading volume rose 3,816% day over day.",
    "Bitcoin's brief dip below $80,000 and recovery to near $82,000 drew heavy fresh attention to this contract, with the volume surge confirming the price level is live as a market focus.",
    "The 7% Kalshi probability on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 suggests markets see limited policy tailwind for a sustained BTC price recovery.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing; the volume spike is the operative signal here, as it marks the $80K level as a focal point for prediction market participants tracking the floor."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lawrence Mondal",
          "source_url": "https://crypto.news/weekly-crypto-recap-bitcoin-ledger-msci-oct-17-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T12:25:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000 this week before buyers pushed it back toward $82,000, with Ledger tightening reseller rules and MSCI changing index rules affecting crypto treasury firms.",
      "publisher": "Lawrence Mondal",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://crypto.news/weekly-crypto-recap-bitcoin-ledger-msci-oct-17-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on Bitcoin minimum price by January 2027 saw volume surge 39x day over day; the 5% price reflects pessimism about sustaining current levels as a floor."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lawrence Mondal: Bitcoin falls below $80k, Ledger changes sales, MSCI rules | Weekly re",
      "url": "https://crypto.news/weekly-crypto-recap-bitcoin-ledger-msci-oct-17-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T12:25:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-min-price-by-jan-2027-kalshi-5-volume-surges-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-min-price-by-jan-2027-kalshi-5-volume-surges-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}