{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091908",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-min-price-jan-1-2027-threshold-kalshi-8-2026-09-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin minimum price by January 2027 holds under 25% odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin min price Jan 1 2027 threshold: Kalshi 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-20",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 450.76,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 8% odds on Bitcoin's minimum price hitting its contract threshold by January 1, 2027.",
    "Bitcoin rallying above $81,000 on CFTC regulatory filing news is bullish for near-term price action, but the 8% on the minimum-price threshold suggests the market still sees meaningful downside risk over the next three months.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on Bitcoin above $250,000 by 2027 sits at just 1%, confirming the market sees the current $80K level as a mid-range, not a launchpad for extreme upside.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing on January 1, 2027; the minimum price mechanic means a single sharp drawdown before year-end could determine the outcome regardless of current levels."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "gate.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.gate.com/news/detail/BTC/bitcoin-tops-81000-as-cftc-files-crypto-rules-with-white-house-24394323",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T07:47:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin topped $81,000 as the CFTC filed crypto market rules with the White House, with short liquidations of $238 million supporting the rally.",
      "publisher": "gate.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.gate.com/news/detail/BTC/bitcoin-tops-81000-as-cftc-files-crypto-rules-with-white-house-24394323"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 8% resolves via CF Benchmarks; the minimum price structure means the contract tracks the lowest Bitcoin price recorded, not the closing price on the settlement date."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "gate.com: Bitcoin Tops $81,000 as CFTC Files Crypto Rules with White House | Gat",
      "url": "https://www.gate.com/news/detail/BTC/bitcoin-tops-81000-as-cftc-files-crypto-rules-with-white-house-24394323",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T07:47:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-min-price-jan-1-2027-threshold-kalshi-8-2026-09-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-min-price-jan-1-2027-threshold-kalshi-8-2026-09-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}