{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070907",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-minimum-above-32k-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-32-2026-07-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-09T08:07:41.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin bear bottom narrative wavers at 32 percent floor pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Bitcoin minimum above $32K by Jan 1 2027: Kalshi 32%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
    "current_price": 0.32,
    "volume_24h_usd": 674.35,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 32% on Bitcoin's minimum price staying above the contract's threshold through January 1 2027, implying meaningful downside tail risk remains.",
    "On-chain bottom signals from Glassnode are not yet reflected as a high-probability outcome; prediction markets assign a 68% chance of further drawdown to a new low.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $63,000 with the 2026 $100K ladder at just 13% (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) frames the asset as range-bound with downside risk outweighing upside conviction.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks tracking the realized minimum price through the settlement date; any fresh geopolitical shock to risk assets could compress the floor probability further."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Alexander Stefanov",
          "source_url": "https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/bitcoin-bear-market-bottom-holders-losses/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "On-chain analysis suggests Bitcoin has spent five months below key cost basis levels, with long-term holders absorbing a significant share of losses, signaling a potential bear market bottom.",
      "publisher": "Alexander Stefanov",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T08:07:41.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/bitcoin-bear-market-bottom-holders-losses/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolving via CF Benchmarks; 32% on floor preservation reflects the bear market context despite on-chain bottom signals in the news."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Alexander Stefanov: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Builds as Holders Absorb 43% of Losses - Cr",
      "url": "https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/bitcoin-bear-market-bottom-holders-losses/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-09T08:07:41.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-09T10:56:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-minimum-above-32k-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-32-2026-07-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-minimum-above-32k-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-32-2026-07-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}