{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102706",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-outperforms-gold-and-s-p-500-in-2026-polymarket-19-2026-10-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-27T11:40:59.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin outperforming both Gold and S&P 500 in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 19%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin outperforms Gold and S&P 500 in 2026: Polymarket 19%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold and the S&P 500 in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb276435811dc77171602f790db2b5900e780adfadb7cff57e547d58fb1a8215f",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 103.694737,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices only 19% odds on Bitcoin outperforming both Gold and the S&P 500 in 2026, a long-shot outcome.",
    "Bitcoin holding below $80,000 while equities rise is consistent with the low Polymarket odds; trading volume on this contract surged 222x day over day, reflecting fresh engagement with the underperformance narrative.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Bitcoin outperforming Gold alone (CM-EVT-TKKW1QZRK9) sits at 46%, implying equities are the bigger hurdle for crypto in 2026.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle using year-end 2026 price comparisons across the three assets."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Stephen Alpher, Helene Braun",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/27/live-updates-bitcoin-holds-below-usd80-000-as-ai-buildout-draws-more-capital",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T13:54:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin held below $80,000 as AI investment draws capital away from crypto, with interest rates and equities diverging from the crypto trend.",
      "publisher": "Stephen Alpher, Helene Braun",
      "published_at": "2026-10-27T11:40:59.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/27/live-updates-bitcoin-holds-below-usd80-000-as-ai-buildout-draws-more-capital"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket volume rose 222x day over day on this contract, consistent with heightened attention as Bitcoin lags behind the equity rally."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Stephen Alpher, Helene Braun: Live updates: Bitcoin holds below $80,000 as AI buildout draws more ca",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/27/live-updates-bitcoin-holds-below-usd80-000-as-ai-buildout-draws-more-capital",
      "published_at": "2026-10-27T11:40:59.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T13:54:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-and-s-p-500-in-2026-polymarket-19-2026-10-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-and-s-p-500-in-2026-polymarket-19-2026-10-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}