{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071608",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-kalshi-26-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T01:05:32.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 consensus wavers at one-in-four",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 26%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026: Kalshi 26%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcvsgold-26",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCVSGOLD-26",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.264,
    "volume_24h_usd": 525.38,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CoinGecko",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 26% chance Bitcoin outperforms gold over full-year 2026, despite Fink's bullish commentary.",
    "Fink's stabilization narrative is not reflected in a market that prices Bitcoin beating gold at barely one-in-four odds.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract prices only 14% on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again, anchoring the modest outperformance odds.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via CoinGecko price data; full-year return comparison between Bitcoin and gold spot price determines settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Helms",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-very-bullish-on-markets-as-bitcoin-stabilizes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said he is 'very bullish' on markets and noted that excessive leverage has been washed out, leaving Bitcoin in a more stable position.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Helms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T01:05:32.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-very-bullish-on-markets-as-bitcoin-stabilizes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via CoinGecko; annual return comparison is the settlement mechanic, not a point-in-time price check."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Helms: Blackrock CEO Larry Fink 'Very Bullish' on Markets as Bitcoin Stabiliz",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-very-bullish-on-markets-as-bitcoin-stabilizes/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T01:05:32.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-kalshi-26-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-kalshi-26-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}