{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080408",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-27-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 27%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026: Polymarket 27%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TKKW1QZRK9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xdcae9573d5680a2c958cca4676ed28df7a06861572124f3396cc60ab6b92b9c2",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.27,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1003.313332,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract puts 27% odds on Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026, a long-shot position.",
    "The Coldcard PRNG vulnerability and associated BTC drainage are a security shock consistent with the market holding Bitcoin at a discount to gold on a 2026 performance basis; trading volume on this contract surged 322x day over day.",
    "Bitcoin is trading near $63K with the market implying less than 13% odds of reaching $100K by September 1 (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99), reinforcing the bearish near-term stack.",
    "Resolution: Polymarket UMA oracle settles based on comparative Bitcoin versus gold price performance over the 2026 calendar year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Julia Parr",
          "source_url": "https://chainarticles.com/coldcard-prng-flaw-lets-attackers-reconstruct-private-keys-1367-btc-drained/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A critical flaw in Coldcard hardware wallets allowed attackers to reconstruct private keys, draining 1,367 BTC across three waves totaling over $100 million.",
      "publisher": "Julia Parr",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://chainarticles.com/coldcard-prng-flaw-lets-attackers-reconstruct-private-keys-1367-btc-drained/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket volume on the Bitcoin vs. gold contract surged 322x day over day, flagging sharp fresh attention on the Coldcard hack's market impact."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Julia Parr: Coldcard PRNG Flaw Lets Attackers Reconstruct Private Keys: 1,367 BTC",
      "url": "https://chainarticles.com/coldcard-prng-flaw-lets-attackers-reconstruct-private-keys-1367-btc-drained/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-27-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-27-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}