{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101108",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-37-2026-10-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 holds near 37 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 37%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026: Polymarket 37%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TKKW1QZRK9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xdcae9573d5680a2c958cca4676ed28df7a06861572124f3396cc60ab6b92b9c2",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 170.28,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 at 37%, keeping Bitcoin the underdog against gold on an annual return basis.",
    "Treasury dropping the unhosted wallet reporting rules is a regulatory positive for crypto, but the contract remains well below 50%, signaling the market is not yet convinced it shifts Bitcoin's full-year trajectory.",
    "Bitcoin near $83,000 is roughly 34% below its all-time high (per Story 32), and gold's relative stability in a risk-off macro environment explains the sub-50% pricing.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8) on the same question sits at 48%, a notable 11-percentage-point gap versus Polymarket, suggesting meaningful cross-venue disagreement on Bitcoin's year-end prospects."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cnnbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/ovpmmz-treasury-drops-proposed-reporting-rules-for-unhosted-crypto-wallets-and-mixers",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US Treasury abandoned proposed reporting rules for unhosted crypto wallets and mixers after industry opposition, a regulatory tailwind for the sector.",
      "publisher": "cnnbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/ovpmmz-treasury-drops-proposed-reporting-rules-for-unhosted-crypto-wallets-and-mixers"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; Kalshi resolves via CoinGecko, the 11-point cross-venue spread may reflect differing resolution methodologies or timing conventions."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cnnbc.com: Treasury Drops Proposed Reporting Rules for Unhosted Crypto Wallets an",
      "url": "https://cnnbc.com/ovpmmz-treasury-drops-proposed-reporting-rules-for-unhosted-crypto-wallets-and-mixers",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-37-2026-10-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-37-2026-10-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}