{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102008",
  "record_slug": "bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-41-2026-10-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 holds near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 41%",
  "headline": "Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026: Polymarket 41%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TKKW1QZRK9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xdcae9573d5680a2c958cca4676ed28df7a06861572124f3396cc60ab6b92b9c2",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.41,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1199.764187,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract puts 41% odds on bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026, resolved via uma_oracle; the Kalshi equivalent (CM-EVT-FMPY92KRH8) sits at 45%.",
    "JPMorgan's bullish decade-long bitcoin projection is not fully priced in: both Polymarket and Kalshi still put the outcome as a slight underdog for 2026 specifically.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $83,000 with gold still strongly positioned year-to-date means the market is not dismissing JPMorgan's view but is not treating it as a 2026 near-term call either.",
    "The Polymarket contract on bitcoin outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 (CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0) sits at only 21%, showing the market sees a two-front outperformance as significantly harder than beating gold alone."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jamie Crawley",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/20/jpmorgan-sees-10-annual-bitcoin-returns-topping-stocks-bonds-and-gold-over-next-decade",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T07:48:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "JPMorgan projected 10% annual bitcoin returns over the next decade in its first long-term BTC forecast, arguing bitcoin would top stocks, bonds, and gold, though the bank cautioned on portfolio sizing.",
      "publisher": "Jamie Crawley",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/20/jpmorgan-sees-10-annual-bitcoin-returns-topping-stocks-bonds-and-gold-over-next-decade"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 41% and Kalshi at 45% on bitcoin beating gold in 2026 show the two venues are closely aligned; the JPMorgan long-term call has not moved the 2026-specific contract materially above 50%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jamie Crawley: JPMorgan sees 10% annual bitcoin returns, topping stocks, bonds and go",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/20/jpmorgan-sees-10-annual-bitcoin-returns-topping-stocks-bonds-and-gold-over-next-decade",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T07:48:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-41-2026-10-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-outperforms-gold-in-2026-polymarket-41-2026-10-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}