{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080305",
  "record_slug": "blanche-ag-confirmation-kalshi-76-2026-08-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Todd Blanche Senate confirmation stays favored at 76 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 76%",
  "headline": "Blanche AG confirmation: Kalshi 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NY76DC3G68",
  "target_event_slug": "kxagconf-26",
  "event_question": "Will Todd Blanche be confirmed?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXAGCONF-26JUN05-SEP01",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump's first announced Attorney General pick be confirmed as Attorney General before Sep 1, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16840.63,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "U.S. Senate",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Blanche confirmation at 76%, a clear but not overwhelming majority, resolves via U.S. Senate vote.",
    "Blanche's rescission of the fund was a direct concession to Senators Thom Tillis and John Cornyn, removing the primary stated obstacle to their support.",
    "The companion Kalshi vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-GMWVVJJ4S2) pins implied vote total at 49-50, consistent with a narrow but successful confirmation.",
    "Kalshi resolves via the official U.S. Senate confirmation vote; failure to hold the 50-vote floor would settle the contract NO."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/todd-blanche-anti-weaponization-fund-order/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche rescinded Trump's $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund after Republican senators threatened to block his confirmation.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/todd-blanche-anti-weaponization-fund-order/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 76% on confirmation; the vote-count ladder at 49-50 implied votes cross-validates a tight but likely passage scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche issues order rescinding \"anti-wea",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/todd-blanche-anti-weaponization-fund-order/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blanche-ag-confirmation-kalshi-76-2026-08-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blanche-ag-confirmation-kalshi-76-2026-08-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}