{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080207",
  "record_slug": "blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-40-2026-08-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-02T11:17:37.410Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue tsunami in 2026 priced near 50-50 on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 40%",
  "headline": "Blue tsunami 2026: Kalshi 40%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 254.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a blue tsunami in 2026 at 40%, just below the even-odds threshold, resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics (likely an editorial proxy for election outcome data).",
    "Arab-American mobilization in Michigan behind El-Sayed signals an activated progressive base, but 40% pricing shows the market is not fully convinced structural dynamics have shifted.",
    "AIPAC's record spending campaign in the Michigan primary is the counter-weight the market is pricing; the race is a bellwether for broader November sentiment.",
    "Polymarket (CM-EVT-WQQ8BVRJT9) at 13% on a previously unannounced Delaware GOP Senate primary winner is an unrelated but concurrent data point on 2026 cycle uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ali Harb",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/1/us-arabs-eye-historic-senate-win-for-abdul-el-sayed-despite-aipac-attacks",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Arab-American voters in Michigan are rallying behind Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed despite heavy AIPAC spending against him.",
      "publisher": "Ali Harb",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T11:17:37.410Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/1/us-arabs-eye-historic-senate-win-for-abdul-el-sayed-despite-aipac-attacks"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 40% on a blue tsunami; the resolution source listed as Bureau of Labor Statistics is unusual and may affect settlement mechanics, traders should verify the contract's actual resolution criteria."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ali Harb: US Arabs eye ‘historic’ Senate win for Abdul El-Sayed despite AIPAC at",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/1/us-arabs-eye-historic-senate-win-for-abdul-el-sayed-despite-aipac-attacks",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T11:17:37.410Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-40-2026-08-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-40-2026-08-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}