{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110603",
  "record_slug": "blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue tsunami in 2026 nears full pricing on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "Blue tsunami 2026: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 118905.83,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a settled outcome given vote counts in progress.",
    "News confirms Democrats have already secured a commanding House majority and are leading remaining Senate races, consistent with near-certainty pricing.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7 on a new Alaska senator sits at only 3%, suggesting that specific race outcome is still uncertain despite the broader Democratic wave.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, though the operative resolution mechanism is the certified congressional election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats have won 253 House seats to Republicans' 157 with races still uncalled, and are leading in Alaska and Mississippi Senate contests.",
      "publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 99%; market is fully aligned with reported Democratic sweep, with the Alaska and Mississippi tallies representing the last residual uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Live updates: Trump heads to NASA expo after GOP’s midterm elections d",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}