{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062607",
  "record_slug": "blue-tsunami-in-2026-kalshi-36-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T16:02:47.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue tsunami in 2026 wavers below majority pricing at midterms",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 36%",
  "headline": "Blue tsunami in 2026: Kalshi 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 691.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a blue tsunami in 2026 at 36%, a meaningful probability but still below majority odds.",
    "News of Democrats threatening double-digit Trump districts suggests structural risk for Republicans; the market is partially pricing this but not calling it the base case.",
    "Polymarket on House control (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) prices Republicans retaining the House at 83%, showing the market sees Democratic gains as possible but not wave-level.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; resolution mechanics are non-standard for an election outcome and should be verified against contract terms."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thedailybeast.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hit-with-ominous-midterm-warnings-in-deep-red-areas/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-28T10:24:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Reports warn that Democrats are within striking distance in deep-red districts, citing Trump's midterm vulnerabilities as ominous for Republicans.",
      "publisher": "thedailybeast.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T16:02:47.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hit-with-ominous-midterm-warnings-in-deep-red-areas/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 36% on a blue tsunami sits well below the 83% Republican House retention on Polymarket, implying the market prices pickup gains rather than a wave."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thedailybeast.com: Trump Hit With Ominous Midterm Warnings in Deep Red Areas",
      "url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hit-with-ominous-midterm-warnings-in-deep-red-areas/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T16:02:47.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-28T10:24:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-in-2026-kalshi-36-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-in-2026-kalshi-36-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}