{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102207",
  "record_slug": "blue-tsunami-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-10-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue tsunami in 2026 midterms holds near 50 percent odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 55%",
  "headline": "Blue tsunami in 2026 midterms: Kalshi 55%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.55,
    "volume_24h_usd": 32326.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 55% odds on a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, a slim majority-favored outcome.",
    "Pollsters pointing to a great Democratic night are broadly consistent with Kalshi's pricing, but the 55% reading shows the market sees it as a coin-flip-plus rather than a certainty.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) on a generic blue wave sits at 84%, suggesting markets distinguish between a wave and the stronger tsunami threshold.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics as listed on Kalshi, the specific resolution criteria for 'blue tsunami' versus 'blue wave' will determine which contracts settle yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Riya Misra",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Four top pollsters said polls point to a strong Democratic night on November 3, though reliability of polling remains debated.",
      "publisher": "Riya Misra",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the blue tsunami at 55%, sitting well below the 84% blue wave contract and reflecting genuine market uncertainty about the magnitude of any Democratic sweep."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Riya Misra: 4 Top Pollsters on What the Polls Are Really Saying",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-10-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-10-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}