{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110503",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "Blue wave 2026: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.989,
    "volume_24h_usd": 132597.48,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue wave at 99%, reflecting near-certainty after Democrat wins across multiple projected races.",
    "NBC News projections of Democratic control of both chambers are consistent with the near-100% Kalshi read; the market had already moved well ahead of full call confirmations.",
    "ABC News separately reported Democrats are projected to take both the Senate and House, reinforcing the Kalshi pricing.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, an unusual resolver for an election outcome; resolution mechanics warrant monitoring for any definitional edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "NBC News reported Democrats won several key races in the 2026 midterms, with vote counts still ongoing in Alaska, Mississippi, and Kansas after what has been called a Democratic sweep.",
      "publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 99% is fully aligned with major outlet projections of a Democratic sweep in the 2026 midterms."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Vote counts in Alaska, Mississippi and Kansas continue after Democrati",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}