{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110803",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 stays near fully priced on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "Blue wave 2026: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.987,
    "volume_24h_usd": 124417.56,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract on a 2026 blue wave sits at 99%, consistent with confirmed Democratic gains in both chambers.",
    "The news of large Democratic majorities aligns with the near-certainty pricing; the market is not fading the outcome.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual source for an electoral question, traders should verify the settlement criteria carefully.",
    "No contradictory electoral contracts with live prices were found; the 99% read stands unchallenged in today's data."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ryan Mancini",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6206264-live-trump-60-minutes-congress-midterms/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Post-midterm coverage confirms Democrats won significant majorities in both chambers, with Congress now preparing for a lame-duck session.",
      "publisher": "Ryan Mancini",
      "published_at": "2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6206264-live-trump-60-minutes-congress-midterms/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; the 99% price is fully consistent with reported Democratic midterm gains."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ryan Mancini: Live updates: Donald Trump sits for post-midterms interview; Congress",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6206264-live-trump-60-minutes-congress-midterms/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-08T13:35:47.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}