{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110505",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-after-democratic-midterm-sweep-2026-11-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 nears full pricing after Democratic sweep",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "Blue wave 2026: Kalshi 99% after Democratic midterm sweep",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 360378.37,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 99% on a blue wave in 2026, essentially fully resolved after NBC's projection of a Democratic sweep of Congress.",
    "News of Democrats flipping control of both chambers is consistent with the near-certain pricing; the market led or ran concurrent with election-night calls.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-64KY3VMH10) prices Trump impeachment at only 2%, suggesting markets see the new Democratic Congress as a check but not a removal vehicle.",
    "Resolution source is Bureau of Labor Statistics per the Kalshi contract metadata, though standard blue-wave resolution would typically reference official certified election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "NBC News projects Democrats swept the 2026 midterms, flipping Congress and winning major races including the Los Angeles mayor's race.",
      "publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 99% is effectively resolved; resolution source listed as BLS, which may indicate a data-mapping note rather than the operative resolver for this contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Election 2026 results live updates: Vote counts in Alaska, Mississippi",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/election-results-house-senate-trump-congress-live-updates-rcna607549",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T12:31:10.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-after-democratic-midterm-sweep-2026-11-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-kalshi-99-after-democratic-midterm-sweep-2026-11-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}