{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110401",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-2026-polymarket-100-2026-11-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T09:47:08.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 fully priced after Democrat sweep",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 100%",
  "headline": "Blue wave 2026: Polymarket 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
  "target_event_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xed4fd09a24f20a3afc1d722ace811fffff3cffd9a56a3fbffc47f4d3d47a88ed",
    "question_raw": "Blue wave in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.999,
    "volume_24h_usd": 256821.81895699998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket contract on a 2026 blue wave sits at 100%, reflecting resolved certainty after Democrat wins in both chambers.",
    "Democrats flipped at least seven Senate seats and won the House, consistent with the contract pricing full resolution at yes.",
    "Trading volume on companion election markets surged sharply overnight as results came in, drawing broad attention across the prediction market space.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; contract likely settles yes upon official certification of Democrat majority in both chambers."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Seyit Kurt",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/morning-briefing-nov-4-2026/4110977",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats won control of both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms, with AP and NBC projecting a full Democrat sweep driven by voter backlash against President Donald Trump.",
      "publisher": "Seyit Kurt",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T09:47:08.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/morning-briefing-nov-4-2026/4110977"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolved to 100% concurrent with AP and NBC projections of a full Democrat congressional sweep."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Seyit Kurt: Morning Briefing: Nov. 4, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/morning-briefing-nov-4-2026/4110977",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T09:47:08.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-04T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-polymarket-100-2026-11-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-polymarket-100-2026-11-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}