{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101104",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-2026-polymarket-86-kalshi-86-2026-10-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T04:26:50.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored across venues",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 86%",
  "headline": "Blue wave 2026: Polymarket 86%, Kalshi 86%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
  "target_event_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xed4fd09a24f20a3afc1d722ace811fffff3cffd9a56a3fbffc47f4d3d47a88ed",
    "question_raw": "Blue wave in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.86,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7.529999999999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket and Kalshi both price a 2026 blue wave at 86%, showing rare cross-venue alignment and strong consensus behind the Democratic scenario.",
    "Media framing of the midterms as a Trump referendum aligns directly with both contracts, and the market is not fading the narrative at current odds.",
    "A separate Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-GJT54LW964) puts only 44% on a blue tsunami, suggesting the market draws a firm line between a wave and a historic sweep.",
    "Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle, identical pricing across venues reduces venue-specific noise."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lauren Day, Bradley McLennan",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/republican-states-like-ohio-in-play-us-midterms/107250786",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "ABC News and analysts describe the 2026 midterms as a referendum on Trump that could produce a Democratic blue wave.",
      "publisher": "Lauren Day, Bradley McLennan",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T04:26:50.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/republican-states-like-ohio-in-play-us-midterms/107250786"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Cross-venue pricing at 86% on both Kalshi and Polymarket reflects broad consensus; the blue-tsunami spread at 44% sets a meaningful upper bound on Democratic expectations."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lauren Day, Bradley McLennan: Midterms a 'referendum on Trump' that could bring a 'blue wave' of Dem",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-11/republican-states-like-ohio-in-play-us-midterms/107250786",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T04:26:50.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-polymarket-86-kalshi-86-2026-10-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-polymarket-86-kalshi-86-2026-10-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}