{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102506",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-2026-polymarket-87-tsunami-at-57-2026-10-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T07:02:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored on Polymarket",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 87%",
  "headline": "Blue wave 2026: Polymarket 87%, tsunami at 57%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4N4F192YB2",
  "target_event_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xed4fd09a24f20a3afc1d722ace811fffff3cffd9a56a3fbffc47f4d3d47a88ed",
    "question_raw": "Blue wave in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.87,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1303.538572,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an 87% chance of a blue wave in 2026, while Kalshi's blue tsunami contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) sits lower at 57%.",
    "The framing of the midterms as a referendum on the Trump administration is consistent with strong Democratic market odds, though the definition gap between 'wave' and 'tsunami' explains the spread.",
    "The 30-point gap between Polymarket's blue wave (87%) and Kalshi's blue tsunami (57%) likely reflects definitional thresholds, tsunami implying a larger seat-gain threshold.",
    "Polymarket's Democrats-win-all-four-core-Senate-races contract (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) sits at 62%, the tightest constraint on the full wave scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Julian Borger senior international correspondent",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/oct/25/ten-days-shake-world-democratic-norms-pivotal-elections-brazil-israel-serbia-us",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A Guardian analysis frames the US midterms as one of four pivotal global elections in 10 days where democratic norms are at stake, with authoritarian backsliding as the central question.",
      "publisher": "Julian Borger senior international correspondent",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T07:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/oct/25/ten-days-shake-world-democratic-norms-pivotal-elections-brazil-israel-serbia-us"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket and Kalshi carry separate blue wave and blue tsunami contracts with materially different resolution definitions, producing a 30-point spread worth monitoring for arbitrage signals."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Julian Borger senior international correspondent: Ten days that could shake the world: democratic norms at stake in four",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/oct/25/ten-days-shake-world-democratic-norms-pivotal-elections-brazil-israel-serbia-us",
      "published_at": "2026-10-25T07:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T07:48:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-polymarket-87-tsunami-at-57-2026-10-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-2026-polymarket-87-tsunami-at-57-2026-10-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}