{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090405",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026-kalshi-76-2026-09-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T11:33:15.539Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 holds above 75 percent on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 76%",
  "headline": "Blue wave in 2026: Kalshi 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3053.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 76% odds on a blue wave in 2026, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics data.",
    "Cornell's academic forecast aligns with the elevated Kalshi probability; the market and the model are pointing in the same direction.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) puts only 40% on a blue tsunami, indicating the market sees a wave as likely but a historic landslide as a coin flip.",
    "Kalshi's blue-wave contract resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an unusual resolution source for an electoral question, traders should note the resolution mechanic before sizing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Credit:  Ryan Young/Cornell University",
          "source_url": "https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2026/09/midterm-forecast-strongly-favors-democrats-win-house-majority",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Cornell University midterm forecast strongly favors Democrats to win a House majority in the 2026 elections.",
      "publisher": "Credit:  Ryan Young/Cornell University",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T11:33:15.539Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2026/09/midterm-forecast-strongly-favors-democrats-win-house-majority"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 76% on blue wave versus 40% on blue tsunami reveals a graded probability structure: wave likely, supermajority less so."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Credit:  Ryan Young/Cornell University: Midterm forecast strongly favors Democrats to win House majority",
      "url": "https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2026/09/midterm-forecast-strongly-favors-democrats-win-house-majority",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T11:33:15.539Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-kalshi-76-2026-09-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-kalshi-76-2026-09-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}