{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090405",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-75-2026-09-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T11:53:10.540Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 holds near 75% as Democrats gain edge",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 75%",
  "headline": "Blue wave in 2026 midterms: Kalshi 75%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-06",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.75,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2292.23,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 75% on a blue wave materializing in the 2026 midterms, resolving via Bureau of Labor Statistics.",
    "The Cornell academic forecast aligns with the market's strong Democratic lean, not at odds with it.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) puts only 41% on a blue tsunami, a meaningful gap suggesting markets see a substantial but not dominant Democratic sweep.",
    "Republican control of at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) sits at 48%, broadly consistent with 75% blue wave odds if the Senate outcome remains contested."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Credit:  Ryan Young/Cornell University",
          "source_url": "https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2026/09/midterm-forecast-strongly-favors-democrats-win-house-majority",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Cornell University midterm forecast strongly favors Democrats to win the House majority in 2026, consistent with Gallup data showing Democrats holding a party identification advantage.",
      "publisher": "Credit:  Ryan Young/Cornell University",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T11:53:10.540Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2026/09/midterm-forecast-strongly-favors-democrats-win-house-majority"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; resolution source appears anomalous for an electoral question and may introduce settlement uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Credit:  Ryan Young/Cornell University: Midterm forecast strongly favors Democrats to win House majority",
      "url": "https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2026/09/midterm-forecast-strongly-favors-democrats-win-house-majority",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T11:53:10.540Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-06T11:54:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-75-2026-09-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-75-2026-09-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}