{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101004",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-81-2026-10-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 midterms stays the favored outcome",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 81%",
  "headline": "Blue wave in 2026 midterms: Kalshi 81%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_24h_usd": 36225.02,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a blue wave in the 2026 midterms at 81%, a strong majority outcome.",
    "The policy analysis citing favorable Democratic fundamentals is consistent with the Kalshi contract's heavy lean toward a Democratic wave result.",
    "A related Kalshi contract puts a blue tsunami, a larger Democratic sweep, at 44%, suggesting the market sees a significant but not historically dominant wave as most likely.",
    "Resolves via official electoral commission results; the gap between 81% wave and 44% tsunami pricing implies the market expects a meaningful but bounded Democratic gain."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kevin Nealer",
          "source_url": "https://www.policymagazine.ca/letter-from-washington-the-state-of-the-midterms/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A midterm analysis published October 10 finds Democrats holding structural advantages in both the House and Senate with less than a month until Election Day on November 3.",
      "publisher": "Kevin Nealer",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.policymagazine.ca/letter-from-washington-the-state-of-the-midterms/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices a blue wave at 81% and a blue tsunami at 44%, with the spread indicating the market favors a solid but not historic Democratic midterm performance."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kevin Nealer: Letter from Washington: The State of the Midterms - Policy Magazine",
      "url": "https://www.policymagazine.ca/letter-from-washington-the-state-of-the-midterms/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-81-2026-10-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-81-2026-10-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}