{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102005",
  "record_slug": "blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-81-polymarket-82-2026-10-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Blue wave in 2026 stays heavily favored two weeks out",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 81%",
  "headline": "Blue wave in 2026 midterms: Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 82%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluewavecombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue wave in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBLUEWAVECOMBO-27FEB",
    "question_raw": "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_24h_usd": 77913.43,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices an 81% probability of a blue wave in 2026; Polymarket independently prices 82%, a rare cross-venue consensus.",
    "Trump's aggressive midterm campaigning is not moving either market; both venues hold near identical high probabilities, showing the rally blitz is being discounted.",
    "Kalshi separately prices a blue tsunami at only 53%, suggesting markets see a strong Democratic outcome as likely but an overwhelming sweep as coin-flip territory.",
    "Kalshi resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics (unusual resolution source noted); Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Stephen Fowler",
          "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/20/nx-s1-6007867/with-just-two-weeks-until-election-day-midterm-campaigning-reaches-a-fever-pitch",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T13:15:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "With two weeks until Election Day, Trump is barnstorming the country to counter a potential midterm blue wave as NPR reports fever-pitch campaigning.",
      "publisher": "Stephen Fowler",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/20/nx-s1-6007867/with-just-two-weeks-until-election-day-midterm-campaigning-reaches-a-fever-pitch"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi and Polymarket cross-venue alignment at 81-82% is unusually tight, making this one of the best-corroborated midterm pricing signals available."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Stephen Fowler: With just two weeks until Election Day, midterm campaigning reaches a",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/20/nx-s1-6007867/with-just-two-weeks-until-election-day-midterm-campaigning-reaches-a-fever-pitch",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T13:15:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-81-polymarket-82-2026-10-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-wave-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-81-polymarket-82-2026-10-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}