{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063001",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-100k-by-dec-2026-kalshi-15-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T04:20:32.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by year-end consensus fractures",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $100K by Dec 2026: Kalshi 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price above $100K by Dec 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 136.47,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 15% odds Bitcoin clears $100K by Dec 31, 2026, with implied range well below $100K.",
    "Bitcoin trading below $60K on ETF outflows and bearish macro is consistent with the market's low-probability recovery pricing.",
    "Trading volume on the Kalshi Bitcoin year-end ladder surged 44x day over day, signaling sharp fresh attention to the downside scenario.",
    "The Jun 30 BTC trimmed-mean Kalshi contract at 1% above $75K confirms the near-term picture aligns with the bearish longer-horizon read."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ainvest.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-faces-structural-bearish-pressure-etf-outflows-hawkish-fed-stance-drive-price-60-000-2606/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, down roughly 53% from its October 2025 all-time high, amid ETF outflows, a hawkish Fed stance, and Strategy's announced potential sale of up to $1.25 billion in bitcoin.",
      "publisher": "ainvest.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T04:20:32.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-faces-structural-bearish-pressure-etf-outflows-hawkish-fed-stance-drive-price-60-000-2606/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via CF Benchmarks at Dec 31, 2026 close; the 44x volume spike makes this the day's most actively repriced crypto claim."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ainvest.com: Bitcoin Faces Structural Bearish Pressure as ETF Outflows and Hawkish",
      "url": "https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-faces-structural-bearish-pressure-etf-outflows-hawkish-fed-stance-drive-price-60-000-2606/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T04:20:32.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-100k-by-dec-2026-kalshi-15-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-100k-by-dec-2026-kalshi-15-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}