{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080306",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-100k-by-sep-1-kalshi-ladder-under-11-2026-08-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-03T08:54:30.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $100K by September stays a heavy long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $100K by Sep 1: Kalshi ladder under 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmax100-26",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price above $100,000 by September 1, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAX100-26-AUG",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Sep 1, 2026 at 12:00AMET?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-01T04:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by September 1 at just 3-11% across the ladder's top strikes, a heavy long shot.",
    "Carry-trade unwind fears and yen intervention pledges add macro headwinds to crypto, broadly consistent with the sub-11% ceiling odds.",
    "A concurrent Bitcoin death-cross signal (20-week EMA crossing below 200-week EMA) reinforces the bearish technical backdrop already embedded in low ladder probabilities.",
    "The longer-horizon ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9, by Dec 31) prices $100K at only 13%, showing the market sees persistent downside risk well beyond September."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Varinder Singh",
          "source_url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-falls-carry-trade-unwind-fears-us-treasury-sec-pledges-further-yen-intervention/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin fell on carry-trade unwind fears as U.S. Treasury Secretary pledged further yen intervention.",
      "publisher": "Varinder Singh",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T08:54:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-falls-carry-trade-unwind-fears-us-treasury-sec-pledges-further-yen-intervention/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on September 1 threshold; the December 31 companion ladder confirms the sub-$100K consensus is not a short-term artifact."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Varinder Singh: Bitcoin Falls on Carry Trade Unwind Fears as US Treasury Sec Pledges F",
      "url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-falls-carry-trade-unwind-fears-us-treasury-sec-pledges-further-yen-intervention/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T08:54:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-100k-by-sep-1-kalshi-ladder-under-11-2026-08-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-100k-by-sep-1-kalshi-ladder-under-11-2026-08-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}