{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081708",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-42-5k-by-aug-31-ladder-near-certain-2026-08-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $42.5K through August stays near full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $42.5K by Aug 31: ladder near certain",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-01"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-9D8FRK3QR0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26aug31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price floor, August 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26AUG31-4250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be below $42500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.01,
    "volume_24h_usd": 18.7,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder shows only 1% probability that BTC trimmed mean falls below $42,500 by August 31, a near-certain floor at current levels.",
    "The $115 million Coldcard hack and 28,000 BTC returning to exchanges are bearish supply-side signals, yet the ladder's floor pricing is not reflecting acute downside risk.",
    "The upper-bound ladder (CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22) shows only 28% probability BTC trades above $67,500 by month-end, capping the range implied by the two ladders at roughly $42,500-$67,500.",
    "Bitcoin spot price cited in Story 31 at $64,127 sits near the upper end of that range, consistent with the 28% probability of a breakout above $67,500."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mathew Di Salvo",
          "source_url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/losses-top-115-million-in-coldcard-hack",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Galaxy Research confirmed $115 million in bitcoin was stolen in the Coldcard hardware wallet hack, while a separate report showed 28,000 BTC returning to exchanges as a prior supply squeeze unwinds.",
      "publisher": "Mathew Di Salvo",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/losses-top-115-million-in-coldcard-hack"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder carries no named resolution source in the provided data; the spread between the floor and ceiling ladders defines the market-implied August trading range for BTC."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mathew Di Salvo: Losses Top $115M In Coldcard Bitcoin Hack: Galaxy Research",
      "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/losses-top-115-million-in-coldcard-hack",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-42-5k-by-aug-31-ladder-near-certain-2026-08-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-42-5k-by-aug-31-ladder-near-certain-2026-08-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}