{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061606",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-64k-on-june-16-kalshi-ladder-55-2026-06-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:48:31.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin June 16 level pricing clusters at $64K to $66K",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $64K on June 16: Kalshi ladder 55%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D5JGCP1HT0",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-above-on-june-16-2026",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on June 16, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x59697f5d90e45547cac0f77c1ead2abe74a052d77592bbd95f0bfcf557046fb9",
    "question_raw": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16?",
    "current_price": 0.19,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7927.998242,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "binance.com",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-16T16:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder for June 16 prices BTC in the $64K-$66K range: 55% above $64K but only 19% above $66K.",
    "News of Bitcoin topping $67K briefly on the Iran deal aligns with the ladder showing a hesitant price: the bulk of probability mass sits below $66K.",
    "The June 17 ladder (CM-EVT-DF6R2T0FW1) shows 53% above $64K and 25% above $66K, implying minimal directional conviction across the two-day window.",
    "The year-end ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) prices only 18% above $100K, indicating markets do not extrapolate the Iran deal into a sustained bull breakout."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/16/profit-taking-across-bitcoin-ether-solana-as-traders-wait-on-the-iran-signing",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin pulled back under $67,000 as traders awaited formal Iran deal signing before pricing in the risk-on catalyst.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:48:31.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/16/profit-taking-across-bitcoin-ether-solana-as-traders-wait-on-the-iran-signing"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Two consecutive daily Kalshi ladders bracket Bitcoin in the $64K-$66K zone, consistent with the cautious analyst tone and pending formal deal signing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: BTC, ETH, SOL price news: Bitcoin back under $67,000 as traders warn o",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/16/profit-taking-across-bitcoin-ether-solana-as-traders-wait-on-the-iran-signing",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T04:48:31.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-64k-on-june-16-kalshi-ladder-55-2026-06-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-64k-on-june-16-kalshi-ladder-55-2026-06-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}