{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072807",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-67-500-by-jul-31-ladder-6-2026-07-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-28T07:32:34.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin ending July above $67,500 looks like a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $67,500 by Jul 31: ladder 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-R55TT711T7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by July 31",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUL31-6750000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9258.74,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices only 6% on Bitcoin's trimmed mean closing above $67,500 by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, 2026.",
    "Bitcoin's retreat to $63,000 from $65,500 resistance is consistent with the ladder stacking heavily below $67,500 with near-zero probability above $70,000.",
    "The distribution implies a ceiling well below prior highs; risk-off geopolitical sentiment from Iran uncertainty is the cited macro driver.",
    "Kalshi contract CM-EVT-3CQP3GL0Y1 prices only 3% on Bitcoin above $250,000 by 2027, confirming the broader long-horizon bearish lean."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "financefeeds.com",
          "source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-falls-back-to-63k-as-risk-off-sentiment-hits-crypto-markets/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin slid back to the $63,000 range after failing to hold resistance above $65,500, extending a broader pullback across digital assets.",
      "publisher": "financefeeds.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-28T07:32:34.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-falls-back-to-63k-as-risk-off-sentiment-hits-crypto-markets/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed mean; the 6% reading at $67,500 reflects a near-complete market consensus that the current range holds through month-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "financefeeds.com: https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-falls-back-to-63k-as-risk-off-sentime",
      "url": "https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-falls-back-to-63k-as-risk-off-sentiment-hits-crypto-markets/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-28T07:32:34.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-67-500-by-jul-31-ladder-6-2026-07-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-67-500-by-jul-31-ladder-6-2026-07-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}