{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072708",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-67-500-by-july-31-ladder-39-2026-07-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $67,500 by end of July stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $67,500 by July 31: ladder 39%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-R55TT711T7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin trimmed mean price above $67,500 by July 31",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUL31-6750000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 61347.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder prices only 39% odds on Bitcoin's trimmed mean exceeding $67,500 by 11:59 PM ET on July 31, with just 6% above $70,000.",
    "News of Bitcoin trading near $65,000 amid geopolitical stress and ETF outflows is consistent with the ladder's below-$67,500 central tendency.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-4WQMN6PQC2 prices near zero probability of BTC falling below $42,500 by July 31, so the floor is well-defined; the contest is in the $65K-$67.5K zone.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99 prices only 3-13% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by September 1, showing the geopolitical discount extends well beyond the immediate FOMC week."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Editorial Team",
          "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-strikes-iran-water-facilities-bitcoin-liquidations/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US military strikes on Iranian water infrastructure sent Bitcoin below $100K and triggered an estimated $700 million in crypto liquidations as geopolitical risk repriced digital assets.",
      "publisher": "Editorial Team",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-strikes-iran-water-facilities-bitcoin-liquidations/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution (venue unspecified in data) shows Bitcoin near-term price risk is asymmetrically skewed to the downside of $67,500 through month-end, consistent with geopolitical overhang."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Editorial Team: US strikes on Iran water infrastructure send Bitcoin below $100K and t",
      "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-strikes-iran-water-facilities-bitcoin-liquidations/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-67-500-by-july-31-ladder-39-2026-07-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-67-500-by-july-31-ladder-39-2026-07-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}