{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082001",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-70k-by-aug-31-kalshi-ladder-90-2026-08-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T06:38:13.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $70K stays heavily favored through August",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $70K by Aug 31: Kalshi ladder 90%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-20"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-91N8R2ZK22",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26aug31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by Aug 31, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26AUG31-7250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $72500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 71125.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices BTC above $70K at 90% by Aug 31, implying consensus near $70K-$72.5K range; $75K only 20%.",
    "News of Bitcoin reaching $70K is consistent with the Kalshi distribution, which already had $70K as its near-consensus floor.",
    "The $72.5K-$75K gap, 46% vs 20%, signals markets see the current level as a ceiling test, not a breakout.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract prices only 14% on BTC above $100K by Dec 31, 2026, suggesting conviction fades sharply at higher strikes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "news18.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.news18.com/business/markets/bitcoin-hits-70000-why-is-bitcoin-rising-today-whats-driving-the-crypto-rally-ws-l-10283527.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin hit $70,000 driven by Trump hints at government BTC accumulation and a White House crypto summit.",
      "publisher": "news18.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T06:38:13.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.news18.com/business/markets/bitcoin-hits-70000-why-is-bitcoin-rising-today-whats-driving-the-crypto-rally-ws-l-10283527.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed mean; the distribution is tight around $70K-$72.5K with sharp drop-off above $75K."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "news18.com: Bitcoin Hits $70,000: Why Is Bitcoin Rising Today? What's Driving the",
      "url": "https://www.news18.com/business/markets/bitcoin-hits-70000-why-is-bitcoin-rising-today-whats-driving-the-crypto-rally-ws-l-10283527.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T06:38:13.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-70k-by-aug-31-kalshi-ladder-90-2026-08-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-70k-by-aug-31-kalshi-ladder-90-2026-08-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}