{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060807",
  "record_slug": "btc-below-62-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-ladder-39-2026-06-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-08T07:31:57.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin end-June floor pricing firms around $62.5-65K",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC below $62.5K by Jun 30: Kalshi ladder 39%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P48V448T55",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by Jun 30, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JUN30-5250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1639.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 39% on BTC finishing below $62.5K by June 30, but only 10% below $52.5K, implied floor centered near $62.5-65K.",
    "BTC rebounding to $63,000 after the $60K breach is consistent with the ladder's distribution clustering around the $62.5-65K zone.",
    "The upside ladder (CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5) prices only 25% above $75K by June 30, confirming a near-term range-bound consensus, not a recovery to new highs.",
    "Resolves via trimmed mean BTC price by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; CME vol futures launch adds an institutional hedging tool but does not alter the directional pricing here."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "financefeeds.com",
          "source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/cme-launches-bitcoin-volatility-futures-as-crypto-derivatives-markets-mature/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CME launched Bitcoin Volatility Index futures as BTC rebounded to $63,000 after breaching $60,000 for the first time since the 2024 election.",
      "publisher": "financefeeds.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T07:31:57.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/cme-launches-bitcoin-volatility-futures-as-crypto-derivatives-markets-mature/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via trimmed mean BTC price at month-end; the 61% probability of finishing above $62.5K reflects the partial post-selloff recovery."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "financefeeds.com: CME Launches Bitcoin Volatility Futures As Crypto Derivatives Markets",
      "url": "https://financefeeds.com/cme-launches-bitcoin-volatility-futures-as-crypto-derivatives-markets-mature/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T07:31:57.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-below-62-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-ladder-39-2026-06-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-below-62-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-ladder-39-2026-06-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}