{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100607",
  "record_slug": "btc-minimum-price-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-6-2026-10-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-06T04:41:10.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin minimum price floors below $100K heading into 2027",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC minimum price by Jan 1 2027: Kalshi 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-06",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin minimum price, January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 155.84,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on Bitcoin's minimum price reaching its strike level by January 1, 2027 sits at just 6%, a deep long shot.",
    "Three consecutive rejections at 87,000 dollars and 172 million dollars in leveraged liquidations over 24 hours are consistent with a market unwilling to price in a strong BTC year-end rally.",
    "Bitcoin is currently roughly 32% below its all-time high of 126,000 dollars set approximately one year ago, contextualizing the distance to any bullish resolution scenario.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks on January 1, 2027; the reference rate methodology and fixing time are key settlement variables."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shaurya Malwa",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/06/bitcoin-keeps-getting-rejected-at-usd87-000-as-stocks-hover-near-records",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin has hit resistance at 87,000 dollars three times since September 23 and is trading near 85,600 dollars as traders await the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes.",
      "publisher": "Shaurya Malwa",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T04:41:10.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/06/bitcoin-keeps-getting-rejected-at-usd87-000-as-stocks-hover-near-records"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 6% pricing reflects deep skepticism about a Bitcoin recovery to resolution-level prices by year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shaurya Malwa: BTC, ETH, SOL price news: Bitcoin hits $87,000 wall for third time as",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/06/bitcoin-keeps-getting-rejected-at-usd87-000-as-stocks-hover-near-records",
      "published_at": "2026-10-06T04:41:10.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-06T14:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-minimum-price-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-6-2026-10-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-minimum-price-by-jan-1-2027-kalshi-6-2026-10-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}