{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090208",
  "record_slug": "btc-outperforms-gold-and-s-p-500-in-2026-polymarket-17-2026-09-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin outperforming gold and the S&P 500 in 2026 stays unlikely",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 17%",
  "headline": "BTC outperforms gold and S&P 500 in 2026: Polymarket 17%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3HDQG11JV0",
  "target_event_slug": "bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold and the S&P 500 in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb276435811dc77171602f790db2b5900e780adfadb7cff57e547d58fb1a8215f",
    "question_raw": "Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2216.9156150000003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on bitcoin outperforming both gold and the S&P 500 in 2026 sits at 17%, reflecting the 50% drawdown from peak.",
    "BlackRock's endorsement is a bullish institutional signal, but the market is not treating it as a catalyst for near-term outperformance, 17% is a long-shot price.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract on bitcoin outperforming gold alone sits at 25%, implying the equity-hurdle in the three-way comparison is the bigger drag on the combined probability.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle on a full-year 2026 return comparison; bitcoin needs to recover most of its drawdown and beat both benchmarks to resolve YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jinju Hong",
          "source_url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/99037/blackrock-urges-1-to-2-percent-bitcoin-allocation-portfolio-benefits-reaffirmed-despite-50-percent-drop",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "BlackRock reaffirmed a 1-2% bitcoin portfolio allocation recommendation despite bitcoin being down roughly 50% from its peak, citing improved risk-adjusted returns.",
      "publisher": "Jinju Hong",
      "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/99037/blackrock-urges-1-to-2-percent-bitcoin-allocation-portfolio-benefits-reaffirmed-despite-50-percent-drop"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket three-way outperformance contract at 17% and the Kalshi gold-only contract at 25% together show markets pricing meaningful probability that BTC beats gold but not equities."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jinju Hong: BlackRock urges 1 to 2 percent bitcoin allocation, reaffirms portfolio",
      "url": "https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/en/view/99037/blackrock-urges-1-to-2-percent-bitcoin-allocation-portfolio-benefits-reaffirmed-despite-50-percent-drop",
      "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-outperforms-gold-and-s-p-500-in-2026-polymarket-17-2026-09-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-outperforms-gold-and-s-p-500-in-2026-polymarket-17-2026-09-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}