{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080608",
  "record_slug": "btc-price-aug-7-kalshi-ladder-64-500-65-000-2026-08-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin price on August 7 centered near $64,500-$65,000",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC price Aug 7: Kalshi ladder $64,500-$65,000",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-07"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PFHRR5PCZ2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcd-26aug0717",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on Aug 7, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T64999.99",
    "question_raw": "Bitcoin price on Aug 7, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17372.25,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-14T21:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies Bitcoin settling around $64,500-$65,000 on August 7: 71% above $64,000, 53% above $64,500, dropping to 34% above $65,000.",
    "Despite a major active hardware wallet exploit and a sweeping security audit with 5,000 findings, the market-implied BTC price shows no collapse, current spot near $63,909-$64,832 is roughly consistent with the ladder.",
    "The Bitcoin-above-$100K-by-September Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99) prices just 1-11% across its strikes, confirming the market sees no near-term recovery to six figures.",
    "The year-end Bitcoin-above-$100K ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) sits at only 14%, indicating the market treats the security-incident week as a headwind to longer-term price recovery."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cointelegraph.com",
          "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Bitcoin Red Team security audit reported 5,000 findings, compounding a week of negative Bitcoin security news including the $130M-plus Coldcard hardware wallet exploit.",
      "publisher": "cointelegraph.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Bitcoin spot price on August 7; the $64,500-$65,000 implied range is set against an active and unresolved exploit event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cointelegraph.com: Bitcoin Red Team Reports 5K Findings in Sweeping Security Audit",
      "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-price-aug-7-kalshi-ladder-64-500-65-000-2026-08-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-price-aug-7-kalshi-ladder-64-500-65-000-2026-08-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}