{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061808",
  "record_slug": "btc-trimmed-mean-above-60k-by-june-30-kalshi-99-2026-06-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T13:50:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin trimmed mean above $60K by June 30 commands near certainty",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC trimmed mean above $60K by June 30: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P48V448T55",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by June 30, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JUN30-5250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 637.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's ladder shows 99% probability BTC trimmed mean stays above $60,000 by June 30, with the distribution implying a range near $62,500-$65,000.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $63,600 is fully consistent with the ladder; the CME-CFTC legal dispute is a regulatory headline that the current price level absorbs without a downside pricing shift.",
    "The year-end ladder (CM-EVT-NHW1YL14S9) shows only 32% probability BTC falls below $40,000 by January 1, 2027, anchoring a broadly constructive medium-term pricing consensus.",
    "Resolves via the Kalshi trimmed mean calculation at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; the trimmed mean methodology, not spot price, is the settlement metric."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Micah Zimmerman",
          "source_url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/cme-group-to-sue-cftc-over-bitcoin",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-20T10:30:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "CME Group announced plans to sue the CFTC over approval of Bitcoin perpetual futures, raising regulatory classification questions under Dodd-Frank, as Bitcoin trades near $63,000-$63,600.",
      "publisher": "Micah Zimmerman",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T13:50:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/cme-group-to-sue-cftc-over-bitcoin"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's near-term ladder confirms Bitcoin's current level is deeply embedded in the distribution; regulatory noise around perpetual futures has not shifted the pricing consensus."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Micah Zimmerman: CME Group To Sue CFTC Over Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Approval In Clash",
      "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/cme-group-to-sue-cftc-over-bitcoin",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T13:50:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-20T10:30:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-above-60k-by-june-30-kalshi-99-2026-06-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-above-60k-by-june-30-kalshi-99-2026-06-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}