{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063002",
  "record_slug": "btc-trimmed-mean-above-75k-today-kalshi-1-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:46:42.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "BTC above $75K by June 30 sits at near-zero pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC trimmed mean above $75K today: Kalshi 1%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean above $75K by Jun 30 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-7500000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.01,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29.37,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices less than 1% at every strike from $75K to $92.5K for today's BTC trimmed mean, implying current price well below $75K.",
    "Bitcoin breaking the 200-week moving average is consistent with the near-zero probability across the entire upside ladder for June 30.",
    "The year-end Kalshi contract at 15% above $100K (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) shows the market sees the near-term damage as a longer-horizon drag.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks trimmed mean at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; any intraday recovery above $75K would be a significant surprise at current pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/bitcoin-just-slipped-below-the-bear-market-line-traders-cannot-ignore-226083",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin slipped below its 200-week moving average over the weekend, trading around $60,238, turning a key cycle-support marker into an active demand test.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:46:42.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/bitcoin-just-slipped-below-the-bear-market-line-traders-cannot-ignore-226083"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves same-day via CF Benchmarks; the entire strike ladder at 1% or below makes this one of the most one-sided current-day crypto prints available."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: Bitcoin just slipped below the bear-market line traders cannot ignore",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/bitcoin-just-slipped-below-the-bear-market-line-traders-cannot-ignore-226083",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:46:42.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-above-75k-today-kalshi-1-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-above-75k-today-kalshi-1-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}