{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061903",
  "record_slug": "btc-trimmed-mean-below-57-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-27-2026-06-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-19T07:53:40.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "BTC end-June floor pricing wavers below $57.5K implied range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC trimmed mean below $57.5K by Jun 30: Kalshi 27%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P48V448T55",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean floor by Jun 30 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JUN30-5250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 637.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's BTC ladder prices 27% on a trimmed mean below $57,500 and 14% below $55,000 by June 30, with the implied floor near $55-57.5K.",
    "Bitcoin's drop below $64K aligns with the ladder's bearish tail, with traders loading put options as low as $52,000 per CoinDesk.",
    "The above-$75K contract (CM-EVT-CM-EVT-3MXSH7KHK5) prices only 8%, confirming the market sees no recovery to prior highs this month.",
    "Resolution uses trimmed-mean methodology at 11:59 PM ET on June 30; extreme intraday wicks would not determine outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Alex Ioannou",
          "source_url": "https://99bitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-btc/crypto-news-today-june-19-btc-crashes-below-64k-kalshi-ipo-rumors-begin-and-g7-leaders-target-north-korean-crypto-hackers/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin fell below $64K on June 19, driven by Fed hawkishness under Warsh and a surge in bearish options positioning down to $52,000.",
      "publisher": "Alex Ioannou",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T07:53:40.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://99bitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-btc/crypto-news-today-june-19-btc-crashes-below-64k-kalshi-ipo-rumors-begin-and-g7-leaders-target-north-korean-crypto-hackers/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi BTC trimmed-mean ladder provides a distribution read; current pricing puts the June-end floor firmly below $60K with a 27% chance of sub-$57.5K."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Alex Ioannou: Crypto News Today (June 19): BTC Crashes Below $64K, Kalshi IPO Rumors",
      "url": "https://99bitcoins.com/news/bitcoin-btc/crypto-news-today-june-19-btc-crashes-below-64k-kalshi-ipo-rumors-begin-and-g7-leaders-target-north-korean-crypto-hackers/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T07:53:40.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-below-57-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-27-2026-06-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-below-57-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-27-2026-06-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}