{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060807",
  "record_slug": "btc-trimmed-mean-below-62-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-61-2026-06-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-08T14:44:57.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "BTC below $62.5K by June 30 consensus firms near even",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC trimmed mean below $62.5K by Jun 30: Kalshi 61%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P48V448T55",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by June 30, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JUN30-5250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1639.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies BTC trimmed mean near $62.5K by June 30: 61% below $62.5K, 39% below $60K.",
    "Bitcoin near $63.5K is at the market-implied distribution midpoint; current spot is essentially at-the-money relative to the ladder.",
    "The above-$75K ladder (Story 36 candidate) prices only 25% probability, pointing to a heavily right-skewed distribution against a recovery.",
    "Resolves via trimmed mean price calculation at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; the settlement source is the Kalshi staff methodology."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "crypto-economy.com",
          "source_url": "https://crypto-economy.com/cme-open-the-door-to-bitcoin-volatility-trading/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-09T10:57:53+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin steadied near $62,000-$63,500 after a 50% decline from its October 2025 high, with RSI hitting 25 and $5 billion in ETF outflows coinciding with the May jobs shock.",
      "publisher": "crypto-economy.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T14:44:57.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://crypto-economy.com/cme-open-the-door-to-bitcoin-volatility-trading/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder straddles current spot price, reflecting genuine uncertainty with a modest downside lean driven by macro and ETF outflow pressure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "crypto-economy.com: CME Opens the Door to Bitcoin Volatility Trading With First Futures Be",
      "url": "https://crypto-economy.com/cme-open-the-door-to-bitcoin-volatility-trading/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-08T14:44:57.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-09T10:57:53+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-below-62-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-61-2026-06-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-below-62-5k-by-jun-30-kalshi-61-2026-06-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}