{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061107",
  "record_slug": "btc-trimmed-mean-by-june-30-seen-62-5k-65k-ladder-2026-06-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T01:37:28.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "BTC June 30 trimmed mean pricing centered in 62500 to 65000 band",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC trimmed mean by June 30 seen $62.5K-$65K: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P48V448T55",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcminmon-btc-26jun30",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by June 30, 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26JUN30-5250000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be below $52500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1639.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "BTC June 30 trimmed mean ladder implies a central range of $62,500-$65,000: 61% above $62,500 but only 39% above $60,000 on the downside.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $60,000 amid Iran-triggered risk-off and $1.72B weekly ETF outflows sits at the lower tail of the distribution, where the market prices 39% probability of the trimmed mean breaching $60,000.",
    "The upside ladder prices only 25% above $75,000 by June 30, showing the market sees limited near-term recovery potential given the macro and geopolitical headwinds.",
    "Resolves via Coingecko trimmed mean methodology; the 'trimmed mean' calculation excludes outlier exchange prices, so flash crashes on thin venues would not distort settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-faces-further-downside-risk-amid-growing-short-term-holder-losses-weak-etf-demand-202606110137",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin declined toward $60,000 amid growing short-term holder losses, weak ETF demand, and a broader risk-off move triggered by US-Iran geopolitical escalation.",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T01:37:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-faces-further-downside-risk-amid-growing-short-term-holder-losses-weak-etf-demand-202606110137"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The BTC June 30 ladder distribution centers near $62,500-$65,000, with current spot prices near $60,000 sitting in the lower 39th percentile of the market's implied range, reflecting but not fully pricing the bearish newsflow."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: Bitcoin faces further downside risk amid growing short-term holder los",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-faces-further-downside-risk-amid-growing-short-term-holder-losses-weak-etf-demand-202606110137",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T01:37:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-11T12:08:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-by-june-30-seen-62-5k-65k-ladder-2026-06-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-trimmed-mean-by-june-30-seen-62-5k-65k-ladder-2026-06-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}