{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101007",
  "record_slug": "ca-6-house-winner-determined-kalshi-92-volume-up-182x-2026-10-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "California 6th District House winner odds attract heavy fresh attention",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 92%",
  "headline": "CA-6 House winner determined: Kalshi 92%, volume up 182x",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-875HC8QSZ0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhouserace-ca06-26",
  "event_question": "Will the winner of the California 6th Congressional District House election be determined by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-CA06-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for CA-06?",
    "current_price": 0.925,
    "volume_24h_usd": 185.55,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices the CA-6 House race winner being determined by the settlement date at 92%, with trading volume up 18,098% day over day.",
    "The surge in volume, not just the probability level, signals this contract is drawing significant fresh attention as the midterm environment shifts.",
    "The nearby CA-15 Kalshi contract sits at 97% and the Iowa 4th at 96%, suggesting markets broadly expect most House races to be called on schedule.",
    "Resolution via Library of Congress; the contract requires an officially recorded winner, not a projection, which could lag if California counting is slow."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Marianne LeVine, Meridith McGraw, Philip Wegmann",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-midterm-election-strategy-e4cfea75",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T07:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Nonpartisan forecasters have shifted multiple congressional contests toward Democrats as Trump campaigns to motivate low-propensity Republican voters before November 3.",
      "publisher": "Marianne LeVine, Meridith McGraw, Philip Wegmann",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-midterm-election-strategy-e4cfea75"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 92%; resolves via Library of Congress; volume spike of 182x day over day is a confirmed data point from provided marks."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Marianne LeVine, Meridith McGraw, Philip Wegmann: Trump’s Hit-the-Road Strategy Aims to Stave Off Republican Midterm Ele",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-midterm-election-strategy-e4cfea75",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T07:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ca-6-house-winner-determined-kalshi-92-volume-up-182x-2026-10-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ca-6-house-winner-determined-kalshi-92-volume-up-182x-2026-10-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}