{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110307",
  "record_slug": "ca-billionaire-wealth-tax-passes-in-2026-polymarket-24-2026-11-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T05:01:51.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "California billionaire wealth tax odds stay well below 25%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 24%",
  "headline": "CA billionaire wealth tax passes in 2026: Polymarket 24%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NGG1B28FJ8",
  "target_event_slug": "billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026",
  "event_question": "Will a billionaire one-time wealth tax pass in the California election in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9345d5142a67f5541264c96515496affee02580f1c572680759eac9fd2a1588a",
    "question_raw": "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.24,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19874.141337999998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts the California billionaire one-time wealth tax passing at 24%, keeping it a clear underdog heading into the vote.",
    "Record $12 billion in national midterm spending has not translated to market confidence in the California ballot measure succeeding.",
    "The 24% probability sits well below the 50% threshold, suggesting the market is not pricing any late-cycle polling surge for the measure.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle; California ballot initiative results can take days to certify given mail-vote counting rules, delaying settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jill Colvin, Mary Clare Jalonick, Will Weissert",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterm-election-house-senate-democrats-republicans-trump-f126e12e05b579a327b98481c0ae2226",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T07:48:22+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Election Day arrives with California voters weighing a one-time billionaire wealth tax measure amid a record-spending midterm cycle.",
      "publisher": "Jill Colvin, Mary Clare Jalonick, Will Weissert",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T05:01:51.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterm-election-house-senate-democrats-republicans-trump-f126e12e05b579a327b98481c0ae2226"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 24% is consistent with historical base rates for wealth tax ballot measures facing organized opposition spending in California."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jill Colvin, Mary Clare Jalonick, Will Weissert: Midterm elections coming to a close as voters pass judgment on Trump's",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterm-election-house-senate-democrats-republicans-trump-f126e12e05b579a327b98481c0ae2226",
      "published_at": "2026-11-03T05:01:51.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T07:48:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ca-billionaire-wealth-tax-passes-in-2026-polymarket-24-2026-11-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ca-billionaire-wealth-tax-passes-in-2026-polymarket-24-2026-11-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}