{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062507",
  "record_slug": "citizenship-proof-required-for-voter-registration-kalshi-15-2026-06-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T09:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Citizenship proof for federal voter registration wavers at low odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 15%",
  "headline": "Citizenship proof required for voter registration: Kalshi 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-G8CYMWNWC6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxelectionbill",
  "event_question": "Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 897.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 15% on proof of citizenship becoming a federal voter registration requirement, despite active White House pressure.",
    "Federal judges have blocked Trump's election executive orders, and Senate Republican resistance to the SAVE America Act is consistent with the low Kalshi probability.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) at 40% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after midterms suggests GOP legislative leverage is itself uncertain.",
    "Resolves via the White House; a formal regulatory or legislative implementation of the citizenship requirement triggers YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newstribune.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.newstribune.com/news/2026/jun/25/trump-refuses-to-sign-landmark-housing-bill/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill, demanding Congress pass the SAVE America Act requiring proof of citizenship for federal voter registration.",
      "publisher": "newstribune.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T09:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newstribune.com/news/2026/jun/25/trump-refuses-to-sign-landmark-housing-bill/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 15% positions this as a long-shot legislative outcome despite Trump's public hostage-taking of the housing bill to extract the vote ID demand."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newstribune.com: Trump refuses to sign landmark housing bill, demanding Congress pass v",
      "url": "https://www.newstribune.com/news/2026/jun/25/trump-refuses-to-sign-landmark-housing-bill/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T09:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/citizenship-proof-required-for-voter-registration-kalshi-15-2026-06-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/citizenship-proof-required-for-voter-registration-kalshi-15-2026-06-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}