{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080407",
  "record_slug": "clarity-act-senate-vote-before-recess-kalshi-36-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "CLARITY Act Senate vote before recess stays a long shot at 36%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 36%",
  "headline": "CLARITY Act Senate vote before recess: Kalshi 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YTTGGKBGT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxclarityvote-26jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-AUG08",
    "question_raw": "Will the Senate vote on CLARITY Act?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19897.91,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-08T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market puts only 36% odds on the Senate voting on the CLARITY Act before the August recess.",
    "Thune's public commitment to a floor vote this week is being faded by the market, which assigns a 64% probability the vote does not happen before recess.",
    "The tight four-day legislative window and competing priorities, including a government funding deal, are likely weighing on market confidence.",
    "Resolution: United States Congress official record of a Senate floor vote settles the Kalshi contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shiraz Jagati",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/thune-clarity-act-vote-senate-recess/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he expects a floor vote on the CLARITY Act this week with only four legislative days left before the August recess.",
      "publisher": "Shiraz Jagati",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/thune-clarity-act-vote-senate-recess/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the CLARITY Act vote at only 36% despite the Majority Leader's public commitment, signaling skepticism about the timeline."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shiraz Jagati: Sen. Thune Says a CLARITY Act Vote Is Coming This Week",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/thune-clarity-act-vote-senate-recess/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-vote-before-recess-kalshi-36-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-senate-vote-before-recess-kalshi-36-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}